Market Report, "Turkey Country Risk Report Q2 2015", published

Core Views

* Although we view positively Turkey's long-term growth outlook, we expect slower, more balanced growth in the next decade relative to the previous one. This will result from less abundant foreign capital inflows and slower domestic credit growth.
* Political uncertainty and social tensions will rise in the run up to general elections in 2015, further weighing on business and consumer confidence.
* The government maintains a conservative fiscal policy with healthy budget and debt dynamics. However, recent populist policy initiatives lead us to question the government's long-term commitment to conservative fiscal management.
* While the government's debt load is low by regional standards, the private sector's rampant external borrowing in previous years has greatly increased macroeconomic risks.
* Lower commodity prices, in particular that of oil, has bolstered Turkey's short-term outlook. Lower imported energy costs will support household purchasing power and help reduce the current account deficit.
* Nevertheless, we expect Turkey's current account deficit to narrow gradually in coming years, as its net hydrocarbon deficit will remain very large. Turkey will remain reliant on short-term foreign capital inflows to cover the sizeable current account shortfall, leaving it prone to tightening global liquidity and shifts in international risk sentiment.
* A dovish central bank will keep inflation above target and ensure a volatile growth trajectory.
* A major corruption scandal and increased incidence of popular protest have highlighted the fact that major political challenges still face the country over the medium term. In particular, the ruling Justice and Development party will take an increasingly unilateral approach as it struggles to maintain support, and will face growing and more vocal public and institutional opposition, with the potential for further unrest. Moreover, Turkey faces a challenging foreign policy environment amidst heightened...

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/974391_turkey_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=301

The Turkey Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Turkey. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Turkey's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Turkey's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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