Market Report, "Central America Agribusiness Report Q2 2015", published

Coffee production in the Central America region will remain at risk over the next few years as the nature of subsistence farming will limit investment into safeguards against diseases such as coffee rust (roya). Countries in Central America are generally dependent on corn imports and we expect the corn production deficit to widen over our forecast period. Strength in the US dollar over this time frame will hurt the capital accounts of the region's countries. We have turned more negative on our short-term outlook regarding the regional sugar industry as a result of low international prices, but expect Central America to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports out the long term. In this time frame, the sugar industry has strong potential to attract investment.

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Key Forecasts

* Coffee production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 38.3% to 15.8mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, though growth will be high over our period due to the base effects caused by these factors. We see more potential for the sector in the long term due to government support schemes.
* Sugar production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 7.1% to 5.9mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2018/19, and development of the export industry could present upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.
* 2015 real GDP growth: 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). A moderate rise from 3.1% in 2014. Real GDP growth is predicted to average 3.4% between 2015 and 2019.
* Consumer price inflation: 4.6% y-o-y in 2015. An increase from 4.1% in 2014. Inflation is predicted to average 4.6% between 2015 and 2019.

Industry Outlook

Although the worst effects of the roya disease are over for now, we believe that coffee output will likely remain volatile in the coming...

The Central America Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

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