Argentina Power Report Q3 2015 - New Study Released

We have started to see improvements in Argentina's power sector in terms of increased availability of financing for planned new capacity and a strengthening in the country's thermal project pipeline . Nevertheless, the market remains underdeveloped relative to its potential and suffers from a combination of ageing generating capacity and distribution networks, difficult access to capital and a reliance on electricity imports. Due to a challenging business environment , we expect Argentina to remain primarily dependent on Chinese and Russian investment for capital-intensive hydropower and nuclear projects . We hold a more positive outlook for the country's power sector starting from 2016, when an economic rebound and the possibility of a new course in economic policy after the elections in October 2015 will trigger broader international investment in Argentina's vast power potential .

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We forecast total power generation to grow by 2.97% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015, to 138.35 terawatt hours (TWh), due to the expected commissioning of new thermal capacity. Our long-term outlook for the market has also brightened as a result of a strengthening pipeline of thermal and hydropower projects. As such, we forecast that electricity generation will increase by an annual average of 3.87% between 2015 and 2024, totalling 196.28TWh by the end of our 10-year forecast period.

We expect electricity consumption to expand by an annual average of 3.3% between 2015 and 2024, driven by strong economic growth beginning from 2016. Our Country Risk team forecasts real GDP to shrink by 0.5% in 2015 and then to grow at an annual average rate of 4.3% between 2016 and 2024.

We forecast that in 2015 68.28% of the country's power will be generated from oil-, gas- and coal-fired power plants, with hydropower providing the second largest contribution to the power mix at 21.32%. Despite significant hydropower capacity additions expected for the latter part of our...

The Argentina Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Argentina Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.

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