Report Published: "Egypt Country Risk Report Q3 2015"

Core Views

* 2015 will be a relatively positive year for the Egyptian economy, as the currency stabilises and investment returns to the county.
* The fiscal and net export position will improve significantly on the back of fuel subsidy reform. Subsidy cuts will likely be watered down if public unrest occurs on a significant scale, however, the bulk of reform will remain in place.
* Hikes to domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double digits by the end of the year.
* Egypt's geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign aid commitments will materialise around the turn of the year. Western powers such as the US and EU have an interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from the GCC which keeps Egypt afloat this year.
* We do not expect an IMF deal in 2015, as the economic rationale has waned somewhat since the influx of foreign aid and it is politically unpalatable at present.
* Parliamentary elections in Q214 will result in a fragmented legislative with minimal Islamist presence.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1003947_egypt_country_risk_report_q3.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

* We now expect sharper depreciation in the Egyptian pound over the coming year, reaching EGP8.000/USD by end-2015.

Key Risks To Outlook

* A failure to secure external financing (whether through the IMF or bilateral aid) raises the risks of a disorderly devaluation of the Egyptian pound.
* Terror attacks, or disturbances caused by the Muslim Brotherhood could have a significant impact on investment and tourism figures.

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