Market Report, "Chile Country Risk Report Q4 2015", published

Chilean real GDP growth hit bottom in 2014, and will accelerate modestly in 2015. An improving net exports position, combined with the government's fiscal stimulus and tailwinds from lower oil prices will support stronger economic activity, although headline growth will remain below the historical trend.

Chile's ongoing external account rebalancing will continue in the coming years, as a weaker average peso bolsters the economic competitiveness of manufactured goods exports, offsetting weakness in mining exports. Moreover, structurally lower oil prices will reduce Chile's import bill, contributing to a widening of the goods trade surplus.

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The Chilean peso will remain under broad downside pressure from falling copper prices and a bull run in the US dollar over the coming quarters. However, structurally lower oil prices will bolster the country's terms of trade, helping the unit to stabilise following a significant sell-off.

The Chilean government's expansionary fiscal policies will drive a widening of the nominal budget shortfall in 2015. Beyond 2015, the deficit will begin to gradually narrow as spending policies normalise and an increase in the corporate tax rate bolsters revenues.

Major Forecast Changes

Tailwinds to Chilean consumers stemming from lower oil prices will more swiftly benefit Chilean consumers than we have previously expected, causing us to revise our growth estimate for 2015 upwards to 3.0%. Moreover, we have revised gross fixed capital formation expansion expectation upwards on the back of base effects from a weak 2014 and slightly higher copper project investment following delays in 2014.

Risks To Outlook

The Chile Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Chile. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Chile's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI  Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Chile's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Chile's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Chile, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Chile Country Risk Report

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