Market Report, "Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report Q4 2015", published

Structurally lower crude oil prices will stymie activity in Trinidad & Tobago's energy sector over the coming years, driving a slowdown in headline growth. Moreover, tepid consumer confidence and a pull-back in government spending on infrastructure projects indicate that growth in non-energy sectors of the economy will also struggle.

Trinidad & Tobago's 2015 general election will be narrowly contested, as a notable increase in homicides depresses support for the ruling coalition. We expect this issue will ultimately drive the opposition People's National Party into power.

Trinidad & Tobago's nominal budget shortfall will widen in 2015, as lower oil prices drive down energy sector revenues. The Trinidadian government will reduce expenditures, but not enough to stem fiscal deterioration, due in part to election-year considerations.

Lower oil prices will place depreciatory pressure on the Trinidadian dollar (TTD) over the coming quarters, resulting in a deterioration of the country's terms of trade and weaker investment inflows. Open market operations by the central bank will prevent a significant depreciation of the currency, informing our view that a gradual weakening of the exchange rate is on the cards in the coming quarters.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1038748_trinidad_tobago_country_risk.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes:

A strong performance by the TTD in the year-to-date, alongside our view that the central bank will look to weaken the currency gradually, prompted us to revise our 2015 average exchange rate forecast to TTD6.420/USD from TTD6.550/USD previously.

The Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Trinidad & Tobago. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Trinidad & Tobago's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Trinidad & Tobago's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Trinidad & Tobago's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Trinidad & Tobago, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.



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