India Agribusiness Report Q4 2015 - New Market Report

We hold a positive view on India's agribusiness sector , as the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and is likely to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand for manufactured foodstuff s . We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomen a owing to climate change effects and serious water shortages. Moreover, the country will remain prone to erratic government intervention, which seriously hampers its reputation as an in ternational provider. W e see the partial liberalisation of the sugar industry as a first positive step that will incentivise production growth and investment in the sector.

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Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 8.5% to 101.4mn tonnes. Growth will come from increasing yields and improvement in the supply chain. What production will also be supported by demand from the livestock sector.

Palm oil consumption growth to 2019: 27.0% to 10.6mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.

Beef & Veal production to 2018/19: 25.0% to 5.1mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by the improvements in breeding techniques, and by the robust expansion of the milk sector. Export demand for Indian beef will also support investment in the sector.

BMI agribusiness market value: USD239.5bn in 2015 (up from USD229.8bn in 2014; forecast to grow annually by 5.3% on average from 2015 to 2019).

2015 real GDP growth: 7.6% (up from 7.3% in 2014; predicted to average 7.0% from 2015 to 2019).

The India Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's India Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients

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