New Market Report: Turkey Food & Drink Report Q4 2015

We have revised down our forecasts for Turkey's real GDP growth to 3.5% for 2015. While abundant global liquidity and the collapse in oil prices since June 2014 have been tailwinds for Turkey's short-term outlook, manufacturing activity has collapsed since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, consumer confidence also f ell to a six-year low in March; we now forecast real private consumption to grow by 1. 8 % in 2015. Rising unemployment, lira volatility and persistently high inflation remain impediments to stronger consumer spending, while an increasingly tense political backdrop ahead of general elections in June will continue to weigh on sentiment. W e do not believe food consumption growth in Turkey will be drastically affected. We hold this view due to the fact that the slowdown in private final consumption in Turkey will be fuelled by the decline in credit purchases, which typically does not affect non-cyclical household expenditure.

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We believe that the country offers one of the best global opportunities in terms of consumer expenditure growth. Turkey's large and youthful population will experience greater income growth as our forecast period to 2019 develops, which will help drive food and drink consumption. Multinational fast-moving consumer goods and retail firms are investing in the country at an increasing pace. We see the ongoing formalisation of the food, drink and mass grocery retail industries forming the backbone of our bullish long-term view on Turkey.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

2015 food consumption sales growth: +10.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019: +9.8%.
2015 food consumption per capita sales growth: +8.9%; CAGR to 2019: +8.8%.
2015 alcoholic drinks value sales growth: +10.5%; CAGR to 2019: +10.0%.
2015 soft drinks value sales growth: +11.5%; CAGR to 2019: +11.1%.
2015 mass grocery retail sales: +12.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019: +12.4%.

The Turkey Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Turkey Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Turkey.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Turkey

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