Poland Infrastructure Report Q1 2016 - New Market Report

We forecast an average real growth of 2.5% in the Polish infrastructure sector between 2015 and 2019. The residential, railways and energy sectors will be the key drivers for growth. However, BMI cautions that increasing state intervention could pose a downside to the energy sector outlook. Furthermore, a new tranche of EU funding is likely to bolster government infrastructure spending and rising GDP per capita will boost the residential construction sector.

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We believe a new possible PiS government would have significant implications for the broader economy and the power sector in particular as it advocates populist policies that are more hostile to foreign investors and big business.

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Due to the upcoming parliamentary elections, political uncertainty will be a key impediment to stronger gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), at least in the short term. In Poland, the GFCF increased to PLN77,854mn in Q215, from PLN57,671mn in Q115, partly explained by the boom in the housing market, expansion in EU funding for infrastructure projects and economic growth (3.4% y-o-y in H115 [World Bank, 2015]).

Although Poland's coal industry suffered a PLN1.45bn (EUR341mn) loss in H115, we forecast coal will remain the biggest component of its electricity generation mix, accounting for 73% of total electricity generation in 2024, but this figure could be increased under the new potential PiS government.

The biggest risk to our forecasts is government willingness to intervene directly in the power market to support ailing state-owned mines, ensure energy prices remain low and achieve energy security.

Poland will receive up to EUR105.8bn under the EU's 2014-2020 Multiannual Financial Framework. We expect funding will be directed predominantly to rail and road projects in the transport sector and clean energy, transmission and distribution, and natural gas supply infrastructure.

The Poland Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Poland Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Polish infrastructure market.

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