New Report Available: Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q2 2016

Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuels throughout our forecast period , which goes as far as 2020 , remaining a net importer of all three. Positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

With Russian-Turkish relations in a precarious state, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that moving away from Russian energy dependence is a priority, with Turkey importing more than 50% of its natural gas and 11% of crude oil from Russia in 2015. However, we anticipate little change to Russia's prominent role in Turkey's energy mix as, according to our Turkey Country Risk analysts, political rhetoric seldom has real economic implications.

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The positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin show good prospectivity and have led us to revise up our gas production forecast, with the potential of further gas discoveries presenting upside risk. Over the long term we forecast natural gas production to fall, as output from conventional fields declines. Valeura Energy has successfully completed the Bati Gurgen-1 exploration well produced at 0.096mn cubic metres per day (Mcm/d), giving it the potential to add an additional 0.034bn cubic metres (bcm) to Turkey's gas production. Bati Gurgen-1 will give a small boost to Turkey's 2016 gas production, raising it from 0.45bcm originally forecast to 0.48bcm - an increase of 6.7%.Shell and TPAO completed the Sile-1 exploration well in the Black Sea in June 2015 and are currently evaluating results. Downside risk to development comes from capex cuts that all oil companies, to include Shell, are undertaking, leaving the ultra-deep and therefore very expensive Sile-1 particularly vulnerable.

In August 2015, construction began on a port for the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic ( SOCAR)'s Star Oil Refinery in Turkey. Work on Star Refinery is progressing rapidly, with SOCAR having spent USD2bn on the project so far, according to SOCAR Turkey President Kenan Yavuz (AZERTAC).

The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.

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