Market Report, "Slovakia Country Risk Report Q3 2016", published

The short-term economic outlook has brightened as export growth led growth of the previous years has translated to a visible pick-up in domestic demand. We expect domestic demand growth to remain robust, driving growth in the coming years.

The current account will return to deficit, but eurozone membership and a stable, long-term external funding structure minimise associated risks and ensure a stable balance of payments position.

We believe Slovakia is on a sustainable fiscal trajectory with few immediate risks to its solid sovereign credit profile. Long-term demographic challenges are prominent, however, posing long-term risks.

While the ruling Smer-SD party lost its sole parliamentary majority after the March 2016 general election, we continue to expect broad policy continuity in terms of its conservative fiscal policy stance. The success of far-right parties is a medium term risk, especially if the growing backlash against the EU project continues.

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Major Forecast Changes

No major forecast changes

Key Risks

The risks to our above consensus growth forecast are weighted to the downside, and largely based on uncertainty over the sustainability of the regional recovery and global economy in light of a sharp emerging market slowdown. We believe the eurozone, as well as Central Europe, is well placed to cope with such a scenario and that it would pose minimal systemic risks. Nevertheless, Slovakia's economy is vulnerable to any shifts in external demand, and a downturn in confidence could weigh on the short-term outlook.

Assess your risk exposure in Slovakia with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Slovakia with confidence.

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