New Report Available: Malaysia Mining Report 2016

Malaysia's mining output growth will remain weaker than seen in previous years due to continued mineral price weakness. Despite this, the c ontinued presence of major miners across the gold and tin sub-sectors will ensure that output from both segments continues to grow over the forecast period, albeit at a slower rate to that seen in recent years.

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We forecast gold prices to edge higher over the coming months, averaging USD1,275/oz in 2016 and reaching USD1,500/oz by 2020 ( see: 'Gold: Upward Revision On Inflation Pressure, May 6).

We forecast Malaysia's overall gold production to average annual growth of 6.0% during 2016-2020 to total 184 thousand ounces (koz). While still high by most global comparisons, this represents a marked dip on recent growth levels, which are estimated to have averaged 8.4% a year during 2010-2015.

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We have increased our 2016 tin price forecast to USD16,500/tonne owing to a stabilisation in the Chinese economy over Q116 that has boosted all industrial metal prices significantly over January-April. While we expect consolidation over the remainder of 2016, tin prices will continue to recover beyond 2016 as the global market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle.

The country's largest producer Malaysia Smelting Corporation's renewed focus on local operations means we expect Malaysia's overall tin output to remain largely unaffected by the current slump in global prices, especially as we forecast global prices to start to rebound from 2017. Malaysia's refined tin output will face an average annual growth of 1.4% during 2016-2020, which is a significant increase from the -2.2% growth from 2011-2015. Nevertheless, Malaysia's global market share will fall modestly from 10.2% in 2016 to 9.9% in 2020.

We expect Malaysia's bauxite mining sector to stagnate over our forecast period to 2020, as it is facing growing environmental, land and labour issues and an impending relaxation of Indonesia's bauxite ore export ban in 2016. Bauxite production will register an average annual growth rate of 4% over 2016-2020, which is a significant fall from the 264% recorded over 2011-2015.

The Malaysia Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Malaysia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Malaysia.

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