New Study: Sudan Defence & Security Report 2016

Sudan is the third large st arms manufacturer in Africa, capable of producing a range of (primarily ground-based) military products. That said , the local defence industrial base remains underdeveloped, and research and development activities are limited. As such, the country will continue to rely on imports for the procurement of more tech n ologically advanced equipment over o ur forecast period to 2025 . The persistent risk of war with South Sudan, as well as threats posed by the con flict in Darfur and insurgency in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile states will continue to drive growth in military sp ending over the next few years; however, sanctions placed against the government prevent most foreign companies from exporting to Sudan.

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Over 2016, we expect Sudanese defence expenditure to reach USD2.9bn. This represents an increase of 6.9% and makes up 3.5% of overall GDP. This reflects the continued demand for funding for military offensives against rebels in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile, as well as the persistent threat of an escalation of conflict with South Sudan.

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Sudanese forces are participating in the ongoing Saudi-led intervention against Houthi rebels in Yemen, having contributed both strike aircraft and troops to the campaign. Khartoum's decision to support the campaign signalled a clear foreign policy shift from al-Bashir towards the Gulf.

Local media reported in February 2016 that Saudi Arabia had pledged USD5bn in military aid to Sudan - though this has yet to be confirmed.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched its annual dry-season offensive against rebels in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile states in March 2016. We expect the offensive to continue throughout the season, with enhanced support to the army from paramilitary and militia forces. According to local media reports in April-May, government forces have so far made minimal territorial gains. In Darfur, there has been an intensification of government attacks in the central Jebel Marra area since January 2016.

A referendum on whether Darfur should remain five administrative units or unite into one was held on April 11-13 2016; however, rebel groups in the region boycotted the vote. The Darfur Referendum Commission reported that 98% of voters had chosen the status quo - preferable for the government, as it keeps its opposition in Darfur divided. Rebel groups later announced they would refuse to accept the results. In May 2016, the Obama administration expressed concerns over Khartoum's decision to hold the referendum without support from the opposition.

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