United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q3 2016 - New Report Available

Through to the end of our forecast period to 2020, we believe the UK will see steady production growth in barley, poultry and cheese. There will be strong export opportunities for grains and sugar to the Middle East and North Africa . In particular, the UK will be a leading sugar exporter among EU countries after the industry consolidates following the removal of production quotas in 2017. Simultaneously, however, we expect to see sugar consumption in the UK decreasing over our forecast period, starting in 2018 at the time of the introduction of the proposed s ugar t ax.

Key Forecasts

Sugar production growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level: - 4.7 % to 9.05mn tonnes. We forecast output to recover from its sharp 2015/16 drop as the EU sugar industry consolidates following the quota removal in 2017. Modest growth in wheat production in line with our view that the EU will see subdued output growth amid slowly rising prices.

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Sugar consumption growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level: - 1.9 % to 2.34mn tonnes. Sugar consumption will decline from 2017/18 onwards owing to the proposed introduction of the UK Sugar Tax, which will hit consumers in the wallet and change their spending habits.

Wheat production growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level : 3.8 % to 17.2 mn tonnes. We forecast modest but continued growth in wheat output, supported by an increasing opportunity for export but still in line with our view that the EU will see subdued output growth amid slowly rising prices.

Poultry consumption growth to 2019/20: 14.1 % to 2.4mn tonnes. Demand for poultry will be strong as the meat is a cheaper and leaner source of protein than either pork or beef, which will make it appeal to UK consumers over the coming years.

2016 real GDP growth: 1.8 % year-on-year (y-o-y) (revised down from 2.5% in our last quarterly update), down from 2.3% y-o-y in 2015.

2016 consumer price inflation: 1.0% y-o-y average, up from 0.2% in 2015.

BMI universe agribusiness market value growth: USD 30.07b n in 2015/16, down by 1.7% y-o-y from USD30.60bn in 2014/15, forecast to rise 2.1% on average annually between 2015/16 and 2019/20.

Industry Outlook

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