Global cement consumption can decline three percent to 3.94 billion tons in 2050. According to CW Research’s long-term forecast on cement demand – available in the 1H2018 update of the Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) – factors such as environmental restrictions, cement substitutes and evolving construction methods would be among the main constraints for cement consumption in developed markets. Conversely, population growth and rising urbanization rates in emerging economies could offset that trend.
"Brisk population growth in some regions, coupled with rapidly growing urbanization rates in under-developed and emerging economies, is likely to positively impact demand levels to 2050. Given that population growth in emerging and under-developed markets is growing at a clipper rate, per-capita cement demand will grow slower than total cement demand in these markets", observes Raluca Cercel, Associate with CW Research.
*Use of alternative building materials to increase*
Whereas in under-developed geographies cement demand is likely to be largely driven by investments in infrastructure and housing, in mature economies total and per-capita cement consumption will possibly experience a modest decrease until 2050.
Already developed, these markets are likely to register an increase in the usage of alternative building materials. Coupled with the purchasing power that enables the usage of new materials, and ever-tightening environmental regulations, using materials other than cement with properties similar to the conventional building materials will probably occur more often.
*Mature economies to experience a slowdown*
The Chinese cement market, currently at a demand peak of 2.3 billion tons, is prone to a significant contraction, mainly driven by the government’s capacity rationalization efforts.
In North America, Western Europe, and some developed Asia/Pacific countries, a decrease in cement consumption in the next 33 years is also projected. Nonetheless, recurrent construction and maintenance needs will likely smoothen the decline of consumption through 2050.
Despite an expected increase in GDP, Eastern Europe could likewise follow a contracting trend in cement consumption, partly due to the usage of substitute materials.
Markets in North Africa, Middle East, South America and Emerging Asia will most probably see their GDPs undergo a more-than-double increase to 2050, which, coupled with population increase, points towards the likelihood of cement demand growth.
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For more information, placing an order, or interview inquiries, please contact Liviu Dinu, Market Services & Marketing Consultant, CW Group, by phone at +40-744-67-44-11, or e-mail at ld@cwgrp.com.
About the Report
CW Group’s Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) is a twice-yearly update on projections for cement volumes on a national, regional and global level. The forecast provides global and regional outlooks, as well as detailed perspective on 57 of the world’s most important countries’ cement consumption, production, net trade and cement production capacity. The five-year outlook presented in this benchmark study enables industry professionals to shape their perspective on markets and business priorities. The report also includes a long-term forecast through 2050, with qualitative analysis on drivers and constraints of global cement demand.
The Global Cement Volume Forecast Report has two updates a year:
· Extended (October): an extended update (includes briefs on the 57 key markets with principal supply-demand impacting drivers and CW Research's analyst market assessments presenting a detailed numerical worldwide analysis, as well as the regional and global supply-demand model).
· Quantitative update (March): a quantitative update (only includes the numerical sections of the report, not country write-ups).
More information about the report can be found here: https://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/12-global-cement-volume-forecast-report
About CW Group
The Greenwich (Conn.), USA headquartered CW Group is a leading advisory, research and business intelligence boutique with a global presence and a multi-industry orientation. CW Group is particularly recognized for its sector expertise in heavy-side building materials (cement), light-side building materials, traditional and renewable power & energy, petrochemicals, metals & mining, industrial minerals, industrial manufacturing, bulk cargo & shipping, among others. We have a strong functional capability, grounded in our methodical and quantitative philosophy, including due diligence, sourcing intelligence, feasibility studies and commodity forecasting. www.cwgrp.com
