releases video on German and Irish politics

From: Saxo Bank
Published: Wed Feb 23 2011, the home of Saxo Bank's trading commentary, financial research and analysis, has released a video discussing the current political situation in Germany and Ireland, as well as the current sovereign debt.

The current political situation in Ireland and Germany is particularly in focus, with financial issues in Japan and the UK also being discussed. In the video Mads Koefoed, macro strategist at Saxo Bank's discusses these issues in more detail.

Firstly, Mads discusses the current political situation in both Germany and Ireland. Earlier in the week saw Chancellor Angela Merkel receive a disappointing result in the Hamburg elections, which saw her party losing roughly half the vote, according to the exit polls. This meant that the social democrats gained around half the vote, meaning they are now a majority all by themselves. Mads comments that this is surprising considering it happened in such an affluent region of Germany, where he would expect Merkel's party to have the upper hand. Mads also comments that the result could be due to many Germans being angry that they are having to foot the bill for bailing out other countries in the Eurozone, though there will need to be a few more regional results before this can be proved true.

The results of the Irish elections will also prove important, as whoever wins could decide to leave the bailout programme that was agreed by the previous government. However, parties such as Labour and Fine Gael look as though they will stay in the bailout programme instead of restructuring the county's debt. A new bailout front is likely to come into existence in the March summit, which should mean lower interest rates for countries that have been bailed out, and this will be more agreeable to countries such as Ireland.

Furthermore, Mads discusses Moody downgrading the debt in Japan. Mads comments that he does not believe this will have any major effect on the market. Japan and other countries are on unstable trajectories because they are borrowing too much and while Japan once had wealthy domestic buyers who were buying their debt, but those are mostly disappearing now. There is also a lack of savers in Japan, meaning it has to increasingly turn to foreign buyers.

Finally, Mads touches on other events that are happening across the world. He mentions important events such as the unrest in Libya and the recent earthquake in New Zealand, but focuses on the upcoming minutes from the latest Bank of England meeting. While inflation continues to remain elevated in the UK, the rises constantly have to be justified to the Treasury to ensure they remain that way. However, the minutes from the meeting may reveal whether the recent rises are going to stay the same, or whether we may see them change in the coming months.

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