"Ukraine Business Forecast Report Q2 2013" is now available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Apr 19 2013

In line with our view for Ukraine to enter a recession, real GDP contracted by 2.7% y-o-y in Q412, the second consecutive quarter of economic contraction. We expect real GDP to contract by 1.4% in 2013.

We maintain our expectations for growing external account imbalances to drive a devaluation of the hryvnia by end-2013.

We see political risks as likely to growth over the next 12 months. The imprisonment of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has severely soured relations with the EU, while bilateral relations with Russia remain tense over the issue of Ukraine's gas imports.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have downgraded our outlook for real GDP growth for 2013 and 2014, and now expect GDP to contract by 1.4% in 2013 and grow by just 1.0% in 2014. This change reflects our bearish outlook for global metallurgical markets next year, our expectations for hryvnia devaluation, and expectations of a retrenchment in government spending.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/584484_ukraine_business_forecast_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=301

We have adjusted our expectations for Ukraine's fiscal deficit in 2013 and 2014, to 3.5% of GDP and 2.2% respectively. Weak revenues and imprudent social spending will drag the deficit higher this year and borrowing costs will remain high.

Key Risks To Outlook:

A sharper than expected devaluation could trigger major shockwaves through the domestic economy, particularly within the financial sector which has barely recovered from the 2008 devaluation. Existing capital buffers may prove insufficient to deal with a devaluation of 20% magnitude or greater.

The main upside risks to our forecast arrive from China's US$158bn infrastructure programme, announced at the start of September. While Chinese markets are barely linked to Ukraine's steel sector, the announcement could help to boost slumping steel prices in increasingly globalised markets, in turn providing some support to Ukraine's exports.

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Germany Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
- Russia Business Forecast Report Q2 2013

Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

Visit website »