Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Russia Freight Transport Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
[ClickPress, Sat Apr 20 2013] Following a year in which BMI believes saw muted growth in some and decreasing volumes in other freight transport modes in Russia, 2013 will signal better growth dynamics and new historic highs in some of the modes.
Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 5.85% in 2013 following an estimated growth of 4.75% in 2012.
There are three key themes to watch in Russia's freight transport market in 2013, with all of them offering upside risk to our forecasts for this sector. The Russian government's privatisation drive will continue to roll on in 2013, with port stakes and rail freight units still to be auctioned off. On top of privatisation, in the rail freight sector specifically, we are seeing a consolidation of players with major mining and steel producing firms selling their transport subsidiaries and major private logistics players developing in Russia's rail freight system.
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The second theme we highlight in Russia's freight sector in 2013 is the impact the preparation for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games will have. All freight sectors are set to benefit, specifically those in the Krasnodar region. The final theme is Russia's recent membership of the WTO. As President Vladimir Putin has highlighted the benefits of an uptick in trade volumes won't be felt straight away, but we believe Russia's freight transport sector will start to fill a positive impact over the medium term.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.8%
* 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 3.9%
* 2013 Port of Novorossiysk throughput is forecast to grow by
* 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.5%
* 2013 Inland waterway is forecast to grow by 3.0%
* 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 5.9%.
Key Industry Trends
Globaltrans' Metallurgical Focus- Globaltrans has won the latest acquisition battle in Russia's rail freight sector with the company becoming the winner of a tender for MMK-Trans, the transport unit of metals producer Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (MMK). Globaltrans is already a major provider of transport solutions for Russia's raw material producers, but its acquisition campaign is geared toward the firm developing its exposure further to the freighting of metallurgical cargoes.
Investors Not Yet Convinced By NSR- The successful passage of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) once again highlights the development of this passage into a viable shipping option. While the development of the NSR initiative has considerable backing from the Russian government, the failure of the privatisation of the port of Anadyr raises questions, as to investors' interest in the scheme.
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