New Market Study Published: Colombia Power Report Q2 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed May 01 2013

BMI View: Hydroelectric sources of power dominate Colombia's electricity mix, and this makes it vulnerable to outages in dry years. Despite this, investment considers in hydroelectric power plants - Ituango and Sogamoso are two key projects in the pipeline - and their large scale means that Colombia will have the potential to boost its energy exports towards the end of our forecast period, in 2022. Key export markets include Venezuela, Peru and - if the Panama interconnection line is ever realised - Central America. Security continues to be a concern in Colombia, with the FARC guerrillas attacking an energy tower in the north east of the country, and this remains an operational risk.

Hydroelectric power continues to contribute to over 80% of total consumption in Colombia, despite the inherent problems associated with this source of energy. This overdependence is even more acute in years of low rain, and the sector also faces other setbacks, such as protests at construction sites and a risk of attack in zones that the FARC guerrillas consider to be their own.

Full Report Details at

During the period 2013-2017, BMI forecasts that Colombia's overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 3.3%, reaching 71.6 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth are annual gains of 3.6% in hydroelectric power generation, while coal and gas-fired generation are forecast to increase by an annual average of 1.9% and 2.6% respectively.

Following an estimated rise in real GDP of 4.4% in 2012, BMI expects average annual growth of 4.6% between 2013 and 2022. Net power consumption looks set to increase to 60.9TWh by 2017, rising to 74.6TWh by 2022. The theoretical net export capacity by 2017 is put at 0.23TWh and Colombia's export capacity will increase to 0.90TWh by 2022.

Key developments in Colombia's power sector this quarter:

* Isagen signed an agreement with Venezuela's Corpoelec in February 2013, which will extend Colombia's electricity exports to Venezuela for another year - until the end of 2013.
* Empresas Publicas de Medellin won a contract for the construction and operation of two transmission lines and a substation which supports the expansion and modernisation of Ecopetrol's refinery at Barrancabermeja.
* Question marks remain over the viability of the Panama-Colombia interconnection line. While representatives from both countries met in November 2012, in March 2013, the Director of ISA stated that the project would be subjected to a strategic revision and that it needed to be redefined. BMI suspects that commercial interest in the project is limited.

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