New Market Research Report: India Power Report Q2 2013

In light of India's economic and demographic growth, we expect power consumption to increase from an estimated 821.24 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2013 to 1,433.24TWh in 2022. The country's 12th Five- Year Plan anticipates energy demand will grow by 6% per annum and electricity capacity will expand by 100 gigawatts (GW). Critical to the plan is the focus on measures to combat the continued rise in India's dependence on imported energy, and a move to favour diversification towards renewable sources as well as nuclear.

The key trends and developments in the Indian electricity market are:

* Despite ambitious plans by the Indian government to boost domestic coal production, we expect the country's reliance on coal imports to grow over the coming years. A combination of obstacles with vital regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles being the most pertinent will continue to sap growth in the coal sector, while burgeoning demand for coal resources fuel an increasing number of Indian companies to embark on overseas ventures. With a stellar portfolio of coal deposits on offer, we believe southern Africa is well-placed to capture the bulk of mining investment from India.
* Several developments within India's renewables industry highlight the continued interest the sector is receiving from private investors and the political will that underpins it. We expect further significant growth in the industry, and maintain our belief that renewables present significant investment opportunities. However, we highlight that renewable-generated electricity is unlikely to contribute significantly to the country's overall power generation capacity. This is founded on our concerns about the sheer size of India's electricity market, coupled with our long-held view that the renewable industry will not reach its full potential.

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The Indian power sector's track record is testament to the difficulties the country faces in implementing its ambitious targets. State government indebtedness is a major obstacle to marshalling the massive infrastructure investment required, and a lack of depth in the Indian financial sector also limits funding options. Furthermore, there is still a lack of regulatory transparency, longevity and certainty regarding the domestic power sector.

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