"Peru Freight Transport Report Q2 2013" is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. We forecast real GDP growth to come in at 5.4% in 2013, a slight upgrade from our previous forecast of 5.2% due to our expectation that economic activity will remain relatively robust in the next few months. BMI sees favourable base effects effecting Peruvian exports in 2013, including the cyclical upswing in Chinese growth, some upside for metals prices in H113, as well as modestly stronger hydrocarbons production will boost exports this year. As such, we forecast export growth of 2.0% in 2013, up from -1.4% in 2012.

Meanwhile, we expect slowing domestic growth to weigh on imports, forecasting growth of 8.0% in 2013, down from 10.0% in 2012. That said, in line with our view for economic rebalancing in China, we expect export growth will remain well off its recent highs averaging 8.0% between 2013 and 2017, compared to 19.1% between 2006 and 2011.

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Headline Industry Data

* We expect growth of 5.17% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 20.3mn tonnes.
* We predict air freight volume to increase 7.4%, to 288,000 tonnes in 2013.
* We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 3.0%, to 1.3bn tonnes-km in 2013.

Key Industry Trends

Mining Output To Boost Rail Freight

We maintain our view that Peru's mining sector will grow steadily over our forecast period, driven primarily by investment into copper and gold mining projects. We forecast Peru's mining sector will grow an average of 5.2% per annum through 2017, reaching a value of US$24.2bn. With a large number of projects in early development and construction phases, the sector presents promising growth opportunities for Peru's rail freight sector, which will be tasked with carrying an increasing amount of mining output.

LATAM Reports Increase In Freight Carried.

Cargo traffic for LATAM Airlines Group increased 3.1% in December 2012 as capacity increased 5.5%. As a consequence, the cargo load factor decreased 1.4 points to 61.3%. The increase in traffic was driven by a stronger seasonal demand as compared to December 2011, which was partially offset by weaker imports into Latin America.

Callao Expansion Offers Upside Risk View Related Content

BMI notes that an expansion to APM Terminals (APMT)'s Muelle Norte container terminal at the Peruvian port of Callao offers upside risk to our box throughput outlook for the port over the medium term.

Key Risks To Outlook

The free trade agreement agreed between Peru and Japan and the associated abolition of import tariffs on goods travelling between the two countries should increase trade flows between the two.

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