New Market Study Published: Japan Shipping Report Q2 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue May 07 2013

Although BMI believes the LDP's return to office in Japan will boost the country's economic recovery, we also think the resulting stimulus will be relatively short-lived and will not be enough to push the GDP growth rate up past the 1.0% mark in this year. The new government has signalled its desire to follow an aggressive policy of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The LDP has its eyes on elections to the Upper House due in July and is hoping that by boosting the economy it will be able to win a majority in that chamber, currently controlled by the opposition. To that end it has announced that it is looking at new subsidies, public works, and investments in sunrise industries. It is also expected to apply pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy. While all this will have an expansionary short term effect, we note that the Japanese economy has in recent years responded only partially to stimulus measures of this kind. We also believe that after the elections worries over the fiscal deficit will return. For that reason we are holding to our conservative estimate that GDP growth will accelerate to no more than 0.9% this year, up from an estimated 0.5% in 2012.

Full Report Details at

Headline Industry Data

* 2013 Port of Nagoya tonnage forecast to grow by 1.2% to reach 188.918mn tonnes, an improvement on the 0.2% growth rate achieved the preceding year. Box traffic at the same port will grow by 2.4% to 2.728mn TEUs.
* The Port of Tokyo will remain Japan's largest container terminal, with box traffic gaining 4.3% to 4.921mn TEUs, up from 3.6% growth in 2012
* The Port of Yokohama will see 1.1% tonnage growth to 123.162mn tonnes, and 2.7% container growth to 2.928mn TEUs, representing an acceleration on the 0.4% and 1.7% growth rates achieved respectively for tonnage and containers in 2012
* 2013 total trade growth forecast to expand by a modest 1.7% in real terms, slower than the estimated 2.5% achieved in 2012.

Nagoya Overtakes Narita

The Port of Nagoya in Central Japan has surpassed Narita International Airport near Tokyo to emerge as the largest export hub among the nation's airports and seaports, measured in value terms. According to data from Tokyo Customs and Nagoya Customs, the port of Nagoya's exports jumped 6.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to JPY9.673trn (US$102.9bn) in 2012, which is the third consecutive yearly increase. In contrast, Narita International Airport's exports slipped 15% y-o-y to JPY7.841trn (US$83.4bn) in the reported period, which is the second straight yearly decline. Meanwhile, the port's overseas shipments also recorded growth in the same period, which was attributed to autos and auto parts which increased 18.2% and 9.1%, respectively.

OSK And NYK Tell Contrasting Stories

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