New Market Research Report: Kazakhstan Infrastructure Report Q2 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri May 10 2013

BMI View: Construction and infrastructure development in Kazakhstan remains buoyant as investors continue to see opportunities in the oil-rich country. Over the 10-year forecast period to 2022, we expect the industry value to triple, rising from US$16.1bn in 2013 to US$50.3bn by 2022. Long-term political stability is the only major threat to the country's construction industry development, with growth of 7.0% year-on-year expected for 2013. This will rise to 9.6% in 2014, driven by demand for the country's resources.

Key developments in the sector:

* Kazakhstan's government announced that it will develop new power plants with an overall capacity of 1,040 megawatts (MW) by 2020. The government will build 14 hydroelectric power plants with a combined capacity of 170MW, four solar power plants and 13 wind power plants with a combined capacity of 793MW. Projects will include construction of the US$196mn hydroelectric power plant in the Almaty region and the US$153mn wind power plant that is located near Astana.
* Kazakhstan will receive an amount worth US$196.5mn from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for the reconstruction and upgrade of a 62km section of the road between Shymkent and the Uzbek border. The redevelopment of the southern section of the road will be funded by the EBRD, while works on the northern 37km, connecting to the outskirts of Shymkent, will be financed by the Asian Development Bank. Upgrades will be done on 99km of road. The project forms part of the overall improvement of the Western Europe-Western China international transport corridor.
* ConocoPhillips officially notified the authorities of Kazakhstan and partners of its intention to sell its stake (8.4%) in the Kashagan field. The project is owned and managed by the international consortium of North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), with the deal amounting to US$5bn.

Full Report Details at

We forecast Kazakh real GDP growth at 5.8% in 2013, following an estimated 5.3% expansion in 2012. A recovery in the agricultural sector combined with strong investment and consumer spending will drive growth higher in 2013. However, we caution that Kazakhstan remains vulnerable to external demand dynamics and that political uncertainty could yet threaten economic growth.

Kazakhstan's political risk profile remains largely unchanged going into 2013, with the succession issue unresolved. We hold to our view that a plan is in the works and that President Nursultan Nazarbayev's sonin- law remains in the running for the top spot. However, the failure to develop a workable succession plan is not only undermining investor confidence but increasingly public confidence in governance in the country, lending further urgency to the issue.

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You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Kazakhstan Infrastructure Report Q2 2013
- China Infrastructure Report Q2 2013
- Thailand Infrastructure Report Q2 2013
- India Infrastructure Report Q2 2013
- Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q2 2013

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