Now Available: Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q3 2013

We believe recently elected President Nicolas Maduro will struggle to exert his grip on power in a highly polarised political landscape, and do not rule out an early exit from office, either forcibly or through referendum recall.

We expect Maduro to continue Hugo Chavez's policies of elevated social spending, which will result in sizeable fiscal deficits. Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.

Major Forecast Changes

We have significantly downgraded our current account forecasts, following the country's first quarterly current account deficit in over three years in Q412, largely driven by sizeable income account outflows. While we still expect the current account to remain in surplus over the coming years, the surpluses will reach near-record low levels.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/596776_venezuela_business_forecast_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Higher than expected oil prices and more aggressive monetary stimulus could see real GDP growth exceed our forecasts for 2013 and 2014.

Downside Risks: The potential for elevated political tensions to materialise in a wider political crisis, poses a significant downside risk to our growth forecast.

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