"Hungary Real Estate Report Q3 2013" is now available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon May 27 2013

On a regional level, in spite of the damage suffered, the Hungarian commercial real estate sector fared relatively well in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis. However, 2013 sees the country in an altogether different position: mired in recession with a stagnant pipeline, invisible investor sentiment, rising policy risks and with the dwindling probability of an IMF deal this year, the country has one of the worst outlooks for the sector regionally. While the short-term outlook is less than enviable, there are pockets of optimism to be found, particularly in Budapest and the longer-term opportunities offered by strong socio-demographic fundamentals.

Full-year 2012 data has revealed persistent weakness across the office, retail and industrial sectors, and the outlook for 2013 has little optimism as a steady stream of negative macroeconomic data emerges from Hungary. As such, we have revised our forecasts for Hungarian real GDP growth downward for 2013 and 2014 from 1.2% and 2.3%, to -0.4% and 2.0% respectively. This was prompted not only by disappointing Q312 data, but also in light of increasing concerns for the political direction of the country after a raft of alterations to the Hungarian constitution were passed in March.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/596833_hungary_real_estate_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

Key Points

* Despite encouraging signs during the first two quarters of 2012, our outlook for the Hungarian construction industry value has changed for the worse as we now forecast a year-on-year contraction in the sector to continue until 2013. Key factors that have shaped this outlook include a weaker economic outlook, the failure of the government to reach an external financing arrangement with the IMF/EU and the over-burdened private household sector. We expect the market to return to positive growth territory from 2014, but any growth during our 10-year forecast period will be minimal and mostly owing to investments in infrastructure projects.
* The retail segment remains the only highlight of the Hungarian commercial real estate market as its office and industrial counterparts continue to struggle. While the sector has not escaped unscathed, it has weathered the storm considerably and comparatively well. In Budapest, 2012 ended with rental rates higher than in January; the only significant growth indicator across our real estate data.

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