Israel Retail Report Q2 2013 - New Market Report

The Israel Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Israel's economic outlook of slowing private consumption and government spending.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Israeli retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a possible further deterioration of the situation in the eurozone on the Israeli consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Israeli retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Israel comes fifth (out of seven) in BMI's Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/596838_israel_retail_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=301

Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer between 2013 and 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by almost 32%, from US$0.49bn to US $0.64bn, with solid demand for patented medicines among the wealthier population.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the regulatory changes that are driving marked OTC and non-patented market growth.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* BMI forecasts real GDP in Israel expanding by 3.9% 2013 respectively, compared with our estimate of 2.8% growth in 2012. Fixed investment will remain the major driver of economic growth, while the commencement of natural gas production in the recently discovered Tamar field will reduce the country's import bill. However, the domestic economy will remain in a soft patch, with private and government consumption growth slowing significantly.
* Private consumption growth averaged only 2.5% over the first three quarters of 2012, having declined steadily since Q111, and we see the downtrend continuing over the coming quarters. With the economy remaining in a soft patch and the government set to implement austerity policies this year, consumer confidence will continue to decline. We also believe that the unemployment rate, which came in at 6.7% in December 2012, will remain relatively elevated as a result of slow growth in the economy. We forecast private consumption increasing 2.5% and 3.0% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

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