Algeria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2013 - New Market Research Report

Algerian authorities appear committed to healthcare development programme, the 2010-2014 tranche of which envisages the construction of more than 150 new hospitals and numerous other facilities. This expansion of medical services will provide an impetus for pharmaceutical consumption growth, which should also benefit from an expansion of private healthcare that is of increasing appeal to the country's growing middle class. However, we caution that cost-containment pressures are likely to prioritise generic and locally and regionally imported medicines over novel drugs.

Headline Expenditure Projections:

* Pharmaceuticals: DZD246.75bn (US$3.17bn) in 2012 to DZD272.62bn (US$3.63bn) in 2013; +10.5% in local currency and +14.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q213 on account of new historical data.
* Healthcare: DZD680.12bn (US$8.74bn) in 2012 to DZD732.41bn (US$9.77bn) in 2013; +7.7% in local currency and +11.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly down in relation to Q213, on account of lower historical figures and less favourable macroeconomic factors.

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Risk/Reward Rating: Having been ranked 14th in Q213, Algeria now occupies a much improved ninth position out of the 30 countries surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. The new Risk and Reward assessment tool is more transparent and more sensitive in regards to potential rewards. Algeria's score for its Industry Rewards variable is now slightly higher than previously, indicating the country's favourable longer-term standing in terms of its pharmaceutical market development.

Key Trends And Developments:

* According to Algeria Press Service (APS) reports from April 2013, hypertension currently affects as many as 49% of those aged 60 and over. Forecasts compiled by the Ministry of Health, Population and Hospital Reform in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) show that, by 2015, some 1.6mn people aged 60 and over living in Algeria will suffer from hypertension, with this figure rising to more than 2mn by 2020. Djamila Nadir, the deputy director at the ministry, added that hypertension affects 26% of adult males aged 25 and over. In order to deal with the issue, the authorities are organising programmes targeting better detection and treatment, while also promoting healthier lifestyles.

BMI Economic View: We forecast real GDP growth in Algeria of 3.4% and 3.6% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The economy will grow below potential over the medium term, owing to slowing hydrocarbon exports and the lack of political will for structural economic reform that would improve labour market and liberalise investment.

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