Report Published: "Poland Business Forecast Report Q3 2013"

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Jul 11 2013

While we are forecasting relatively robust economic activity over the medium term, high unemployment and stagnant real wages will continue to weigh on real GDP growth.

Poland's external position remains relatively strong. We forecast the current account deficit to narrow from 3.4% of GDP in 2012 to 3.1% in 2013 as the economic slowdown reduces import demand. That said, a large stock of foreign-owned government paper and ongoing private sector deleveraging are two major risks to our sanguine outlook.

We continue to expect the Civic Platform-led government to serve out its term. The government won a recent parliamentary vote of confidence, suggesting its parliamentary majority is safe for the time being. We also believe that the opposition will struggle to broaden its appeal despite the rising unpopularity of the government, limiting its ability to challenge the ruling coalition.

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Major Forecast Changes

In light of the disinflationary environment and a sharp deceleration in domestic demand, we have revised down our fiscal deficit projections, which we now expect to arrive at 3.6% in 2013 and 3.2% in 2014.

Despite our expectations for Poland to miss the EU's 3.0% of GDP budget target this year, the country will very likely avoid punishment under the exceptional growth clause, which permits some leeway for countries affected by very low annual growth.

We have revised down our forecast for real GDP growth in 2013 from 1.9% to 1.5%, and from 3.0% to 2.7% in 2014 in light of Poland's increasingly depressed household segment.

Low inflation and slowing growth have paved the way for further monetary easing, and we now forecast 75 basis points of cuts to the base rate in 2013, bringing it to 2.50% by year-end.

Key Risks To Outlook

Although not our core scenario, we highlight the risk of Greece leaving the eurozone, potentially leading to a disorderly break-up of the whole common currency bloc. This would likely push Poland into recession.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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