"Zambia Business Forecast Report Q3 2013" Published

The removal of subsidies for fuel and maize has the potential to significantly alter the government's spending profile, freeing up resources for vital investment in infrastructure and social development.

The administration of President Michael Sata continues employ a heavy hand in its approach to political dissent, and will need to change to a more diplomatic approach to avoid threatening Zambia's reputation for political stability.

Major Forecast Changes

Following our Mining team's downgrade to its copper price forecast, we have downwardly adjusted our projection for Zambia's current balance in 2013, from a surplus of 0.2% of GDP to a deficit of 1.3%.

Key Risks To Outlook

The most salient risks to Zambia's economy stem from global economic developments which directly impact the price of copper, Zambia's chief export, as well as the appetite for frontier market investment. If struggles in Europe, China, and other major markets are more or less pronounced than we currently anticipate, then our forecasts would be rendered either too optimistic or too negative.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/640198_zambia_business_forecast_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

We again stress that we believe that President Michael Sata understands the importance of maintaining good relationships with foreign businesses and other private sector stakeholders. However, recent actions threaten Zambia's reputation of democratic stability, and if the situation worsens, businesses may become more wary.

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