Poland Agribusiness Report Q3 2013: New research report available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Jul 31 2013

We see the most growth potential for the livestock sector in Poland owing to increased export potential to the EU and Asia. The livestock industry in the country is relatively price-competitive compared with industry majors such as Brazil and the US, but it does not necessarily have the right export networks and infrastructure to rival these countries. We believe the horsemeat scandal and recent quality scandals in the beef industry will limit growth potential in the beef sector but poultry and pork should continue to perform strongly. For grains and sugar, we see growth potential limited by the recent U-turn in the EU biofuels policy restricting the amount of food crops to be used in the production of ethanol.

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 4.2% to 9.7mn tonnes. The EU's Rural Development Plan 2007-2013, for which Poland has a budget of EUR17.2bn, will encourage consolidation, modernisation of agricultural holdings and infrastructure improvements in the country's grain farms. Increasing international investment will also play a role.
* Beef consumption growth to 2016/17: 8.2% to 183,600 tonnes. Over the past decade, beef consumption has declined rapidly in the wake of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and with consumers believing that poultry is a healthier choice. The horsemeat scandal as well as recent quality concerns made public recently could affect consumption growth over the long term and we have revised down our forecasts out to 2016/17.
* Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 5.2% to 12.1mn tonnes. Polish sugar producers will most likely be encouraged to increase output as EU reforms of the sugar sector gradually come online until full abolition of sugar production quotas in 2015. That said, restrictions put on the EU's subsidies budget are expected to weigh on growth.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 1.5% (down slightly from an estimated 2.0% in 2012; predicted to average 3.3% over the period 2012-2017).
* Consumer price inflation: 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average for 2013 (slightly down from the 4.1% y-o-y estimated for 2012).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.6% y-o-y increase to US$16.4bn in 2012/13, forecast to increase on average by 0.6% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/640299_poland_agribusiness_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

Revisions To Forecasts:

* Beef production and consumption growth to 2016/17 revised down: This was in line with our view that the horsemeat scandal and quality issues would impact exports and domestic demand for beef.

Industry Developments

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