Just Released: "Vietnam Telecommunications Report Q3 2013"

Conflicting sources of data mean that it is difficult to obtain a clear picture of Vietnam's telecoms market; government sources vary in their calculations as to market size, and, as key operators are state-owned¸ they do not have an obligation to publish operational data and financial results. The figures available do show a general upward trend in Vietnam's mobile market - although the pace of growth has slowed in recent years. Delays to the launch of 4G mean that, for the short term, operators will concentrate on migrating subscribers to 3G services. The broadband market also shows strong growth, although the geographical challenges of Vietnam's landscape mean that there are physical limitations to infrastructure expansion. The fixed-line sector continues to post declines.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/640328_vietnam_telecommunications_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

Key Data:

* We believe that the mobile sector grew by 4.0% in Q113. This marks a slowdown on growth rates posted in 2012 and 2011.
* Vietnam fixed-line industry is rapidly contracting; we are forecasting the penetration rate to decline from an estimated 8.1% in 2012 to 4.3% in 2017.
* We have raised our forecasts for the broadband sector this quarter, in light of strong growth in late 2012. We now forecast that total broadband subscribers will rise to 5.4mn by end-2017.

Key Trends And Developments

The launch of a 4G network in Vietnam has been postponed until 2015, with the government keen for 3G services to improve in quality first. An industry survey reported that almost half of Vietnam's 3G subscribers are unhappy with the service they receive.

VNPT must complete its restructuring plan by June 2013; it is under pressure to do so as a change in regulations means that one mobile operator with more than a 20% stake in one firm cannot hold more than a 20% in another operator. VNPT currently owns 100% of both Vinaphone and MobiFone. The government will make a final decision on the restructuring in September 2013.

Mobile number portability is likely to be pushed back to 2017, as opposed to the 2014 start date that the Ministry of Information and Communication had originally proposed. The ministry is facing considerable opposition on this change from mobile operators.

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