Recently released market study: Venezuela Retail Report Q3 2013

The Venezuelan Retail Report examines how best to maximise returns in the Venezuelan retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the February 2013 devaluation of Venezuela's currency on the consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being used by the leading players in the Venezuelan retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Venezuelan per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 41% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 27%. Venezuela comes fifth (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings.

Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be one of the strongest performers through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$3.87bn in 2013 to US$4.77bn by 2017, a rise of 23.4%.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/670690_venezuela_retail_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* We have made substantial downward revisions to our real GDP growth outlook for Venezuela following the release of below-expectation Q113 data. We now forecast real GDP growth to come in at 1.0% in 2013, down from our previous 2.6% estimate, and 2.1% in 2014, compared with the 2.8% previously expected.
* There are signs that real private consumption growth will be even weaker than we previously anticipated, prompting us to adjust our forecast. The impact of the February devaluation of the bolivar has fuelled consumer price inflation to 30.0% y-o-y, which has resulted in negative wage growth and eroded purchasing power. Although real private consumption expanded by 3.2% y-o-y in Q113, we expect the above-mentioned dynamics to intensify as the full effects of the currency devaluation filter through. We therefore forecast real private consumption to slow from 7.0% in 2012 to 1.8% in 2013 (down from 2.0% previously) and 2.0% in 2014 (compared with our 2.2% previous estimate).

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