Uganda Business Forecast Report Q4 2013 - New Market Report

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Oct 02 2013

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Uganda's relatively impressive short-term political rating is in part a reflection of the strong leadership of President Yoweri Museveni. With Museveni having driven through constitutional changes to abolish term limits, the country scores highly in terms of the 'policy continuity' subcomponent. The dominance of the NRM has long underpinned a high 'policymaking process' score, although party infighting is on the rise.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risk To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Opposition Frustration Rising, Protests To Continue
- Frustration with President Yoweri Museveni and his ruling National Resistance Movement Party is on the rise, with the latest protests centring on a controversial appointment to a cabinet post. We believe that the government's unresponsiveness to recent criticism will likely provoke further demonstrations.
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Challenges For Museveni And Beyond
- Uganda will face several challenges over the coming decade, including a presidential succession as well as the need to overcome the legacy of civil war in the north and create jobs for its youthful population. That said, we maintain a positive outlook on Uganda and foresee a relatively successful resolution of these challenges.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Despite Challenges, Growth To Accelerate
- Despite some persistent headwinds, we continue to expect Uganda's growth to come in markedly higher in 2013 than in 2012. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.2% in 2013, up from just 2.8% in 2012.
Fiscal Policy
Old Priorities, New Taxes In Latest Budget
- Uganda's recently-released budget for the upcoming fiscal year is broadly one of continuity, with emphasis on infrastructural improvements and broadening the tax base. From a business environment perspective, the budget includes both positives and negatives, with encouraging reforms offset to some degree by an increase in taxation, as Uganda seeks to replace lost revenue from international donors.
Monetary Policy
Further Caution Warranted As Inflation Risks Rise
- The Bank of Uganda has again elected to hold its benchmark policy rate at 11.00%, due to soft aggregate demand and inflationary risks, conditions which it says calls for a 'neutral policy stance'. We expect price growth to tick up slightly by the year's end, but the central bank will continue to resist raising rates.
Balance Of Payments

Full Report Details at

Full Table of Contents is available at:

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