We forecast the Czech policy rate to remain at 0.05% throughout 2013 given the lack of domestic inflationary pressures. With headline consumer price inflation falling within the central bank's target range of 2.0% += 1.0% in 2013, we do not expect the Czech National Bank to loosen policy further via extraordinary measures, such as foreign exchange rate intervention.
The ouster of former prime minister Petr Necas' conservative government in June should further support our expectation for the fiscal consolidation drive of the public sector to abate in 2013 and 2014.
This should help the gradual economic recovery via less pressure on household spending. Even with fiscal targets missed, the Czech Republic is on a sustainable fiscal trajectory in the coming years due to low deficits and public debt.
We reiterate our view that the country will continue to post modest current account deficits for the foreseeable future. The country's status as a regional safe haven will ensure that stable financial inflows continue to cover the country's external financing needs.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/694755_czech_republic_business_forecast_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=301
Major Forecast Changes
Despite the Czech Republic's worse than expected economic results in Q213, the country is poised for a modest turnaround this year as leading indicators signal that the worst may be now over. Although we have slightly revised down our forecast for growth for 2013 - from 0.2% previously to 0.0% this year, we maintain our expectation for a modest rebound of the Czech economy this year.
Key Risk To Outlook
A more pronounced slowdown in eurozone economic growth and in particular in Germany would have a negative effect on the Czech Republic's economic growth trajectory. Owing to the high degree of trade integration with Germany, the Czech Republic's economic recovery remains highly dependent on external demand remaining relatively receptive to Czech exports.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Czech Republic Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Iran Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- France Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Estonia Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
Czech Republic Business Forecast Report Q4 2013 - New Market Report
Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001