New Market Study Published: Macedonia Business Forecast Report Q4 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Oct 31 2013

Political stability in Macedonia following a two-month parliamentary deadlock could prove short-lived, as the ruling Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization - Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) and the opposition Social Democratic Union of Macedonia continue to disagree on the events that led up to the opposition's boycott of the legislature at the start of the year. A return to positive private consumption growth will see Macedonia's economy continue to expand over the course of 2013 and beyond.

A challenging export outlook and falling current transfers will see the current account deficit grow and remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes

We have raised our 2013 real GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 2.0%, but lowered our 2014 growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.8%, on account of weak domestic consumption.

We narrowed our current account deficit forecast for 2013 from 4.3% of GDP to 3.9%, and now see a peak deficit of 4.1% of GDP in 2014, as opposed to our previous projection of 4.8%.

Key Risks To Outlook

The prospect of tighter liquidity conditions across Europe, particularly with developed market interest rates seemingly on the rise, could affect the Macedonian economy's growth potential over the next few years.

Falling imports could be an indication of lower capital goods imports due to lower business confidence, which would lead to less investment into productive capacity than we are currently forecasting under our 5.5% real fixed investment growth forecast.

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