"Iran Telecommunications Report Q4 2013" now available at Fast Market Research

We introduced 3G forecasts for the first time into our report, following the launch of Rightel's services in late 2011. Our estimates and forecasts highlight BMI's belief that there is pent up demand in the market for 3G services. However, we believe there are considerable downside risks to the service's outlook, with vocal opposition to the types of services available over 3G and international sanctions making network infrastructure expensive. The government holds a tight control on all areas of the market, and as such, network development lacks investment. That said, there is considerable potential for growth, if sanctions are lifted, in both mobile and wireline technology.

Key data

* BMI estimates for 2012 fixed lines was in line with ITU official data. Forecasts have been left unchanged seeing almost 40% penetration by the end of our five-year forecast period to 2017.
* MTN's ARPU remained below US$4 for the second quarter in a row, highlighting the difficulties with exchange rates, devaluations and inflation in the country.
* BMI estimates around 2mn 3G subscriptions at the end of 2012 and sees rapid growth in 2013 and 2014. However, 3G subscriptions have yet to impact the broadband market.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/689035_iran_telecommunications_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=301

Key Trends And Developments

Data on Tamin Telecoms' Rightel service remain unavailable, buit BMI estimates the company has begun to make an impact on the mobile market in Iran. In February 2013, the government granted Rightel exclusive rights to 3G network services until 2014, extending the current agreement for one year. We continue to believe this decision will hold back investment in the data market, where we believe there is considerable pent-up demand for mobile data.

The Telecommunications Company of Iran (TCI) announced planned investments amounting to IRR25trn (US$2bn) for the current Iranian year (beginning March 21 2013). The head of the board of directors, Mostafa Seyyed-Hashemi, also reported that TCI's investment reached IRR17trn (US$1.4bn) in the previous Iranian year, following the privatisation process in 2009.

South Africa's MTN Group announced in February 2013 it had been cleared of accusations that it bribed Iranian officials in a bid to gain a mobile licence for operations in the country. MTN is also seeking ways to get its money out of Iran. The firm is holding talks with several US authorities according to MTN's CEO, Sifiso Dabwenga. The provider wants to repatriate nearly US$400mn in loans and between US$150mn and US$200mn in dividends.

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