Market Report, "Germany Infrastructure Report Q4 2013", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Nov 04 2013

Data from the first half of 2013 has confirmed that adverse weather conditions has prevented the German construction season from fully taking off. However, there are a number of short-term indicators which support our view that the industry will post stronger real growth in 2013 than 2012, and should return to positive growth in 2014. Investment in the energy and rail sectors support our outlook, as well as building orders being at their highest level in years. In 2013 we forecast -1.9% real growth for the industry, and then an average 1.1% per annum up to 2022.

Key developments in the sector are:

* The air transport sub-sector will see growth slow to an annual average of just 1.3% between 2014 and 2022.We are seeing growth slow due to a number of large projects coming into their final stages, including the expansion of Frankfurt International to include a third terminal, which is owned by Fraport, and the much delayed new Berlin airport, which has recently been found to have over 60,000 faults needing to be addressed. One major project in this sub-sector is the EUR1bn expansion of Munich International Airport, which is the second largest airport in Germany. The expansion includes the construction of a third runway, and the project will allow Munich to land 120 planes per hour, up from 90, expanding annual passenger capacity to 58mn. Plans should see work continue to 2025, with the new runway planned for completion by 2015.
* The Stuttgart 21 project has the potential to boost Germany's rail infrastructure sector and presents a significant upside risk to our railways forecasts - that is if the project is not cancelled or significantly reduced in scope. The new station and urban redevelopment project originally had a price tag of EUR2.6bn (US$3.3bn), but it has since ballooned to around EUR4.1bn (US$5.4bn) - costs that will be jointly borne by Deutsche Bahn, Stuttgart's airport and federal, state and city governments. The associated high-speed rail line to Ulm has an estimated cost of EUR3bn. Construction began in February 2010. Officially, Deutsche Bahn says the project will be completed by 2020, but Stuttgart 21 has already been plagued with delays and Transportation Ministry officials in Berlin are estimating that it will potentially not be finished until 2024.

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