"Egypt Retail Report Q4 2013" now available at Fast Market Research

The Egypt Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Egypt's economic outlook of ongoing policy uncertainty.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Egyptian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the generally weak outlook for the global economy on the Egyptian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Egyptian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Egyptian per-capita consumer spending is forecast to rise by 72.1% by 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 47.2%. The country comes last in BMI's Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms slightly for Reward. Among all retail categories, autos will be one of the top performers through to 2017 in growth terms, with unit sales forecast to increase by 76.1% between 2013 and 2017, from 219,105 units to 385,917 units. However, sales growth in the short term is likely to be constrained, with automobile sales figures from Ghabbour Auto (which has a 29% share of the Egyptian passenger car market), reporting that sales (in unit terms) were down 12.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) between October and December 2012, following a drop of 25.0% y-o-y in the previous quarter.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/712770_egypt_retail_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=301

Car ownership in Egypt is estimated at around 23 cars per 1,000 people, compared with 35 per 1,000 in Iran and more than 100 per 1,000 in Saudi Arabia, which means the country has considerable room for growth. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in trade tariff reform between Egypt and the EU, which will open the market for more overseas manufacturers and expand export opportunities for domestic producers.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* We forecast real GDP growth of 2.5% and 4.2% in FY2013/14 and FY2014/15 respectively, having come in at an estimated 1.9% in FY2012/13. The influx of foreign aid following President Morsi's ousting should mean Egypt avoids a pronounced balance of payments crisis in 2013. However, Egypt's economy will continue muddling through for the next year with the interim government eager to avoid any potentially destabilising structural reforms that are needed to put the economy on a firmer footing. We forecast private-sector consumption to slow in FY14 to 3.0%, from an estimated 3.1% in FY13 and an average of 5.6% in the preceding three years. The outlook is modest given the parlous state of the economy, and the political situation is likely to result in consumers holding off most purchases.

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