Now Available: Poland Autos Report Q4 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Nov 12 2013

In Poland, passenger car sales increased 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first seven months of 2013, to 172,322 units. This is due primarily to a 19.2% y-o-y increase in July on the back of pent-up demand in the market, and we do not expect to see this strong growth rate sustained over the year. Indeed, we forecast a decline of 1.0% as we expect private consumption to remain fairly weak with consumers unwilling to make big-ticket purchases.

Despite a slight uptick in the wider economy, we think a robust recovery in household consumption this year is still off the cards. The labour market remains weak, with unemployment continuing to trend higher over the first half of 2013, and real wage growth remains tepid. This has partly informed our bearish 2013 sales outlook.

Passenger car production in Poland decreased 18.9% y-o-y in the first six months of 2013, to 254,800 units. On the back of weak output volumes to date and our bearish outlook for European passenger car sales in 2013, we forecast a 20% drop in output over the year.

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In 2012, passenger car production in the country declined 26%, to 548,100 units, on the back of the broader weakness in European vehicle demand and the underperformance of Fiat in the region. We expect these dynamics to continue to play out in 2013.

Indeed, we have become increasingly bearish on the sales outlook for many markets in Europe. We do, however, remain positive about the long-term growth potential in Poland's manufacturing segment, as we believe it will draw in investment owing to its low-cost production base and proximity to key European markets, which are expected to return to growth over the medium term.

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