Market Report, "Poland Metals Report Q1 2014", published

Although we are optimistic about Poland's economic growth prospects, expecting an expansion of 1.5% in 2013 (recently revised downwards from 1.9%) and steady headline GDP expansion thereafter, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects. Key metal consuming segments such as autos and particularly construction will underperform.

Looking at the longer term, we expect growth in Poland as an autos export hub to remain steady, though construction activity will be underwhelming. Production of steel, copper and lead will grow, but at a slower rate than demand. Investment into production facilities will be restrained by several factors including stagnant domestic mine production, higher taxes and low metal prices.

The Polish metals industry is fairly concentrated, with international operators ArcelorMittal and KGHM dominating steel and copper production, respectively. KGHM is a domestic company with global ambitions, having embarked on a strategy of growth through international acquisitions. The company is also reported to be involved in the construction of two coal-fired units with state-controlled PGE in the southern city of Opole. Such expansion will be challenged by our expectation for copper prices to trend lower in the years ahead.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/723498_poland_metals_report_q1_2014.aspx?afid=301

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