"Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q1 2014" now available at Fast Market Research

Azerbaijan's considerable energy reserves and rising gas output have not enhanced its petrochemicals capacity, largely owing to a poor business environment, which has deterred investors, according to BMI's Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report. However, there are signs that this is changing for the better as the government makes a concerted effort at restructuring the sector, with plans afoot for a massive expansion of olefins and polymers by 2020.

Already, the past year has seen Azerbaijan Methanol Company (AzMeCo) begin operations at its new US $360mn plant. The plant has a capacity of 560,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), raising methanol production in Azerbaijan to 720,000tpa. About 90% of the output is set to be exported.

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Over the past quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* The medium-term focus will be the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR)'s Oil-Gas Pocessing and Petrochemical Complex (OGPC), which will have a total gas processing capacity of 10-12bn cubic metres (bcm) and oil refining capacity of 10mn tonnes per annum (tpa). The complex will come fully on stream in 2020, which is outside BMI's forecast period. Capacities will include 700,000tpa high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE), 130,000tpa polypropylene (PP), 40,000tpa benzene and 110,000tpa styrene.
* The government of Azerbaijan also plans to increase polyethylene production from 72,200tpa in 2011 to 120,600tpa in 2015. The country is also set to start production of polypropylene (PP) in 2014, with 58,300 tonnes produced in the first year of operations and 61,800 tonnes in 2015. BMI believes these targets are likely to be realised.
* Azerbaijan is in 16th and last place in BMI's proprietary Europe Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), with a score of 35.3 points, up 0.1 point since the previous quarter due to an improvement in country risk. Azerbaijan is 6.4 points behind Bulgaria. Azerbaijan's score will rise when new capacities come on stream, but the earliest project to be completed will be in 2015.

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