"Italy Autos Report Q1 2014" now available at Fast Market Research

We forecast vehicle sales in Italy to decline by 8.5% in 2014, to some 1.4mn units, on the back of a weak macro environment and in line with our forecast for an 8.0% drop in passenger car sales and 14.4% fall in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2014, we expect these dynamics to continue to impact the autos sector, and accordingly forecast a 5.6% drop in vehicle sales over the year.

BMI believes that private consumption in Italy will continue to contract in 2013, although at a slower pace than the sharp decline witnessed in 2012. We maintain a bearish view on the country's private consumption story: Economic indicators suggest that consumer sentiment is beginning to turn a corner, in line with the moderation in declining autos sales, but we caution that the recovery will be slow, and private consumption is likely to remain weak over the short term. Indeed, Italian households have been hit by ongoing austerity measures, including higher taxes and cuts in social spending, while unemployment remains elevated, and real wage growth is fairly tepid. This outlook has partly informed our 2013 passenger car forecast.

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We expect business and manufacturing activity in the country, key drivers of growth in the CV segment, to remain relatively subdued over the year. Furthermore, we believe that many businesses are delaying their purchasing decisions in the face of this economic decline. This outlook has partly informed our bearish sales forecasts for the year. In 2013, we expect LCV sales in Italy to decline 14.5%, and heavy truck sales to decrease 16.0%.

BMI believes that Italy's labour market still remains relatively uncompetitive and rigid, and production will continue to be uncompetitive. Indeed, vehicle production in Italy declined 15.0% in 2012. Output from Fiat makes up most of this figure. The company's decision to consolidate manufacturing in Italy, despite the poor operating environment, has caused us to revise our longer-term production forecasts for the country. In 2013, we expect to see a 5.7% increase in vehicle production volumes on the back of low base effects and Fiat's restructuring strategy.

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