Recently released market study: Ukraine Autos Report Q1 2014

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Jan 02 2014

In Ukraine, vehicle production declined 39.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first 11 months of the year, to 44,062 units. During this period, passenger car production declined 39.8% y-o-y, to 40,118 units, and commercial vehicle (CV) production dropped 38% y-o-y, to 1,831 units. On the back of output volumes over the year, and our view that many European markets, which are the country's leading trade partners, are bottoming out somewhat, we forecast total vehicle production to fall 39.6% in 2013. This comes from an expected drop of 40% in the passenger car market, and a 35% decline in the CV segment.

This reflects further declines from 2012, when vehicle production in Ukraine fell by 27.1%, to 76,281 units. Over the year, passenger car production declined 28.6%, to 69,687 units, and CV production declined 6.7%, to 6,954 units.

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Most of Ukraine's passenger car output is destined for Western Europe, where many markets have bottomed out, and we expect to see a moderation in their sales declines, although many still remain in contractionary territory. CV production has historically been driven by strong export growth, but this dropped off in 2012 as manufacturing activity declined across much of Europe; we expect this segment to remain weak in 2013.


BMI maintains a bearish outlook on private consumption in Ukraine. We expect to see a slight slowdown in consumption over the year, as unemployment continues to increase and real wage growth slows. Further, our expectation for a currency devaluation in H213 also implies a future reduction in household purchasing power.

In the first 11 months of the year, passenger car sales in Ukraine declined 10.8% y-o-y, to 192,304 units. This follows a 24.5% decline and 30.7% y-o-y drop in October. Following growth earlier in the year, we previously highlighted that we expected the market to fall in the final few months of the year; this is playing out. On the back of an increasingly weak macro picture, impending devaluation, and artificially strong growth in 2012, we forecast an 8% decline in passenger car sales in 2013.

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