New Report Available: Canada Telecommunications Report Q1 2014

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Jan 29 2014

The list of confirmed participants for the 700MHz spectrum auction to be held in January 2014 was confirmed during this quarter but revealed no new interested parties, contrary to the hopes of the Canadian government. Laws regarding spectrum transfers, foreign ownership, network sharing as well as the dominance of the country's top three operators has created an unattractive environment for potential investors. BMI had been sceptical a fourth player would emerge in the 700MHz auction, and we believe this could lead to the government relaxing its stance on spectrum transfers, allowing consolidation among smaller players. The potential acquisition of Mobilicity by WIND Mobile could prove to be a test case for this, as we have long-held that the smaller players could rally around WIND as a potential challenger to the dominance of Telus, Rogers and Bell Canada. These newer, smaller players have experienced virtually no success with their low-cost prepaid business models, however, there are opportunities that could be attractive to a larger WIND company; high instances of higher value postpaid subscriptions and ARPU growth suggests there is a demand for 3G and 4G services in the country.

Full Report Details at

Key Data

* All the major mobile operators including Telus, Bell Wireless, Rogers Wireless and MTS Mobility all reported net mobile subscriber additions in Q313, as growth looks to pick up over the second half of the year, in line with our expectations following market contraction in Q113. The principal operators - including regional players MTS and SaskTel - continue to roll out 4G services based on LTE technology. Although they remain reluctant to disclose adoption rates, continued growth in the number of smartphone and tablet users suggests they would be unwise to curtail 3G/4G investment any time soon.
* New data from MTS suggests the fixed voice market was smaller than we had originally believed and caused us to downgrade our forecasts for the service in this update.
* The data available regarding the development of the broadband and pay-TV markets, from selected operators is on track with our forecasts for the 2013-2017 and we have left them unchanged.

Key Trends & Developments

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