New Market Study Published: United States Freight Transport Report Q1 2014

BMI maintains its cautiously positive outlook on the US freight sector. We remain positive on the growth trajectory for the US economy over the next several years, as we believe that many structural factors are aligning for a period of sustained growth, underpinning our forecast for real GDP growth to average 2.4% a year during our forecast period, up from 0.8% a year from 2008-2012. We expect growth of 2.8% in GDP in 2014, up from an estimated 1.8% in 2013.

Our view for a narrowing US current account as a percentage of GDP deficit continues to play out, largely on the back of falling energy prices and higher domestic production. We believe export growth will generally outpace import growth over the medium term, and expect broad stability in the financial account.

A steady improvement in consumer confidence during the first nine months of 2013 also reinforces our view that private consumption will accelerate in 2014. As confidence improves, we expect consumers to be relatively more willing to spend on big-ticket items and shift relatively more income away from savings and toward spending.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/768427_united_states_freight_transport_report_q1_2014.aspx?afid=301

Key Industry Data

* At the Port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast a contraction of 4.6% in total tonnage in 2014, to reach 72.7mn tonnes.
* At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 3.1% in 2014, to reach 147.7mn tonnes.
* We predict growth of 2.9% in air freight volumes, to reach 21.1bn tonnes-km in 2014.
* We predict growth of 3% in rail freight tonnes, to reach 2.01bn tonnes in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

Could MIA's Robust October Growth Mark A Turning Point?

Miami International Airport (MIA) has reported a stronger year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate in cargo handled at the airport in October 2013. Year-to-date (y-t-d) data for January-October 2013, however, shows a weaker growth rate than in the same 2012 y-t-d period. BMI highlights that MIA is heavily exposed to the growing Latin America air freight sector, and the stronger growth rate in October 2013 could mark a turning point in total cargo handled by the airport.

CSX's LNG Trial A Wise Move, But Not Without Its Risks

CSX Transportation has announced plans to join a growing number of North American rail and road freight carriers in trialling LNG fuel as an alternative to diesel. Overall, we view this as a positive step. However, while there are numerous advantages to this switch (LNG will allow trains to run further and faster with fewer refuelling stops) there are some risks.

UPS, DHL And FedEx To Hike Rates

United Parcel Service (UPS) and Fed Ex along with German Logistics Company DHL Express have announced rate hikes for 2014. UPS Ground, Air and international and Air Freight rates within and between the US, Canada and Puerto Rico will increase by an average of 4.9% from December 30.

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