Just Released: "Mexico Autos Report Q1 2014"

Light vehicle sales in Mexico decreased 2.0% y-o-y in September 2013, to 78,351 units. Over the year to date, sales in this segment have increased 7.3% y-o-y, to 755,315 units. This recent moderation in sales growth is in line with BMI's core view that the market would cool slightly in the final months of 2013, mostly due to base effects from strong sales figures in Q412. We forecast passenger car sales to increase 6.6% and LCV sales to increase 8.0% in 2013. BMI maintains a bullish view on the Mexican consumer story, as retail sales have remained resilient in recent months and broader measures of consumer sentiment are positive.

Light vehicle production in Mexico dropped 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2013, to 241,740 units. Over the first nine months of the year, however, light vehicle output increased 4.4% y-o-y, to 1,986,759 units, on the back of increases in production for export and the domestic market. BMI forecasts passenger car production to increase 6% and light commercial vehicle (LCV) production to increase 4.5% in 2013. We expect to see output pick up slightly in the final few months of the year chiefly on the back of increasing production for export volumes.

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Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 11,512 units, in the first nine months of 2013. This follows a 19.2% y-o-y decline in this segment in September, a rate we do not expect to continue over the year. We forecast a 5% decline in 2013, as weak growth in the country's manufacturing and construction sectors has tempered demand for trucks over the year. There are signs that these industries are beginning to pick up somewhat, however, and we expect to see a small resurgence in heavy sales. This, combined with low base effects from declining sales in 2013, has informed our 2014 forecast for 3.3% growth in the segment.

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