Turkey Metals Report Q2 2014 - New Market Research Report

Despite relatively weak growth to be expected in the near-term, the medium-term outlook for Turkey's metals sector remains promising due to strong demand from the domestic construction and autos sectors. Near-term headwinds are likely to include currency weakness making imports of materials more expensive and weak global steel prices squeezing steel-makers' margins. An uptick in political risk in Turkey also presents a key downside risk.

Over the medium-term we forecast Turkey's total steel production to grow from 35.9mnt in 2012 to 45.6mnt in 2018. We expect growth to average 5.6% y-o-y over 2014-2018, as we predict a recovery from the negative growth seen during 2013, which was a result of weak global steel prices and a weak lira pushing up the cost of imports of materials.

We expect to see the share prices of Turkey's two largest steel producers, Erdemir and Kardemir, continue to outperform following steady output growth over 2013. In July 2013 Standard and Poor's raised Erdemir's long-term corporate credit rating from 'B' to 'B+' reflecting the company's strong operating performance.

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Downside risks to our five-year forecasts include subdued demand from EU states, depreciation of the Turkish lira raising production costs, political unrest in the country and a global weakening of steel prices. Although we see the negative growth over 2013 as a temporary slowdown in a larger growth picture, weak steel prices will continue to prevent a more rapid growth rate. Downside risks to our five-year forecasts include subdued demand from EU states, depreciation of the Turkish lira raising production costs, political unrest in the country and a global weakening of steel prices. Although we see the negative growth over 2013 as a temporary slowdown in a larger growth picture, weak steel prices will continue to prevent a more rapid growth rate.

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