Peru Food & Drink Report 2014 - New Market Research Report

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Mar 04 2014

We expect headline growth in Peru to remain slightly lower than the previous five-year period. The slowdown in the Chinese economy will hinder the expansion of the country's mining sector, which accounts for around 10% of the Peruvian GDP. A weakening currency and ticking up inflation will weigh on consumer spending over the short term, affecting all consumer sectors, including food and drink. Nevertheless, we maintain a positive longer-term view of Peru's food and drink sector, which will see strong expansion rates and present a number of interesting investment opportunities over the forecast period.

Headline Industry Data

* Per capita food consumption value (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2013: +8.77%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017: +8.20%;
* Alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2013: +6.19%; CAGR to 2017 = +6.13%;
* Soft drinks value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y): +7.02%; CAGR to 2017: +6.92%;
* Mass grocery retail value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y): +10.30%; CAGR to 2017: +9.72%.

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Key Industry Trends And Developments

In November 2012 statements made to Olive Oil Times by the Peruvian Pro Olivo Association indicated that local producers of olive oil had been affected by imports of subsidised Spanish olive oil inflows into Peru. As a result, Pro Olivo has applied to 'Peru's National Institution for Competition Defense and Intellectual Property Protection (Indecopi) for an extension of countervailing duties on Spanish olive oil imports', according to the source.

Key Risks to Outlook

While Peru's economy offers a wealth of opportunities at a sector level, the operating environment is not without risks. In our view, political risk is likely to remain high over coming years on the back of continued social unrest and a tenuous security situation. We believe income inequality is a root cause of many of these issues, and we expect they will take years to resolve. In addition, the domestic security situation has come back into focus following an increase in activity by left-wing insurgent group Sendero Luminoso, with resolution unlikely to be reached easily.

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