New Report Available: Slovenia Oil & Gas Report Q2 2014

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu May 01 2014

There are glimmers of hope in the upstream oil and gas segment, with the Ascent-operated Petisovci tight gas scheme capable of improving near-term energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. However, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future. Slovenia is opposed to proposals for an Adriatic LNG terminal that is backed by Italy. This puts the country at odds with EU energy policy in the region.

The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:

* Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petisovci tight gas project in Slovenia. Operations at the Pg-11A well indicate the potential for high gas productivity. In November 2013 key contracts were signed between the explorer and its Slovenian partners, including a new joint venture agreement, as well as a new infrastructure and service agreement. First production from Petisovci is expected by end-2014. The company has been particularly upbeat about the prospects of the project, with estimates of gas-in-place of as much as 17bn cubic metres (bcm). In February 2012, Ascent reported a 22% increase in P50 gas-in-place (GIP) volumes - to 14.3bcm - which was above the 11.7bcm previously announced for the scheme. The 200sq km Petisovci area straddles the Hungary/Slovenia border and contains three depleted shallow conventional oil and gas fields.
* Gas demand, which fell by 12% in 2012, made a partial recovery in 2013, growing 5%, and is expected to reach 1.0bcm by 2017, increasing to 1.3bcm by 2023. Domestic production for 2017-2022 is forecast to come in at around 0.8bcm based on the Petisovci-Lovaszi project, meaning that there will be a greatly reduced import requirement. Further success in proving up reserves and production potential could mean upside risk in terms of domestic gas supply. Oil consumption is expected to track the underlying GDP trend, with demand keeping pace with economic growth. With four years of consecutive negative GDP growth since 2010, oil consumption has gone through a slight contraction. The country consumed around 2% less oil in 2013 than the previous year. In 2014 consumption will remain relatively flat, with the economy still stagnating, almost matching the 2013 figures at 54,200b/d. Consumption will pick up from 2015 with BMI estimates suggesting the country will finally achieve positive GDP growth after five years of consecutive contractions. Our projections state that oil consumption could reach 57,200b/d in 2017, before rising to an estimated 66,100b/d by 2023, met entirely by imports.

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