Recently released market study: Estonia Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue May 20 2014

We believe Estonia is on a sustainable growth trajectory following the deep recession brought on by the eurozone debt crisis, with economic growth to average 3.1% from 2015-2017 before gradually settling towards long-term trend growth of 2.7%. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth over the medium term, as sluggish regional economic activity hinders faster export growth

Estonia's external accounts pose few risks to macroeconomic stability. Low current account deficits in the coming years will be comfortably financed, and will not be associated with an unsustainable build up of short-term foreign liabilities, as in the pre-financial crisis era.

We maintain a positive view towards Estonia's fiscal trajectory, with total public debt to remain the lowest in Europe by a comfortable margin.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our 2014 growth forecast, from 2.8% to 2.0%, as a sluggish recovery in external demand is weighing on the short-term growth outlook. However, we continue to expect a more robust recovery in 2015, as economic recoveries in the eurozone and Nordics gain traction and begin to spur higher regional trade volumes.

Full Report Details at

Key Risks To Outlook

As a member of the eurozone, Estonia remains exposed to any renewed flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis.

The extreme openness of the Estonian economy, where exports plus imports represented 177.4% of GDP in 2013, means economic growth will remain extremely sensitive to external shocks and dependent on sustained export growth.

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